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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

We are Nearing a Major Run Up in the Gold Price Similar to Early 1979

Adjust the price of gold in terms of true inflation numbers, you get a figure north of $2,000 dollars today. However Golds second attempt at $1,000 resulted in a nasty stumble in the last couple months.

Is Gold in need of a long consolidation? I don't think so. I believe we are nearing a major run up in the gold price similar to early 1979.

If a 20 % correction in the gold price started under natural selling, I would believe it would be time for pause, perhaps many months (ie 6 -12 months) to consolidate before the market figures out what to do before it resumes its bull.

However since this sell off has been criticized as non legit with evidence of intervention followed with intense physical buying; this is not a sign of "TIME FOR PAUSE" but instead a rush to take advantage of a discount. This tells me the gold price could move substantially higher in the months ahead.

Precious Metals Manipulation: Lawyers Prepare for Battle

Monday, August 18, 2008

Don't Believe the Gold Price

Is the bull market over for gold? Absolutely not, the linear trend line has not been broken on gold however, the parabolic trend line I am using has recently been challenged and briefly breached. However the shortages in the physical market tells me there is either soaring unexpected demand for physical gold (and silver) or a supply problem which leads me to believe the paper market is out of touch with reality.

A sharp correction in gold can lead to what many gold experts call a forced liquidation of the (highly leveraged) paper market. In my opinion there is no doubt the Gold Cartel gave it a little push on the down side.

This is yet another great time to dollar cost average:

Jim Sinclair reminds us why you don't speculate in Gold with leverage:

Chris W: You discussed the dangers of leverage in the precious metals markets while promoting cash investing, I want to give you a chance to talk about why.

JIM Sinclair:
The majority of people couldn't stand what went on in the last month in gold, You know..they would see their life passing in front of their eyes, they would be terrified of their investments ...emotions would take them out where? Directly on the BOTTOM! -- UP it goes in they GO-- Before their finished they got no money so when you speak to many people you have a responsibility and the responsibility is sort of like don't yell fire in the theater. You don't have to have a ton of gold , A little goes a long way, Its an insurance policy.".... "GOLD IS INSURANCE when you start putting leverage on it you are a speculator...go speculate in GOOGLE, leave GOLD alone!"

Friday, August 1, 2008

Gold Price was the Alarm the middle Class needed.

I put myself in the same school of thought with the GATA camp.. The supression of the Gold price basically silenced the inflation alarm. If this alarm had went off earlier perhaps Billions in mal investments could have been averted.

You can thank Policy makers and Central banks for cutting the wires on the alarm system.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Gold Price Set to Tackle $ 1,000 Once and For All

The gold price is preparing to tackle the $1,000.00 mark once and for all, Three times should be a charm.

Watch the US dollar index, once the dollar breaks decisively below the 71 level the gold price should gather momentum to the upside.

On a technical note, the construction of a handle may be underway, a mini rounded bottom including the $940 area is very possible and would be very constructive for the gold price to surge through the 1,000 dollar mark.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Gold Price Got You Giddy?

Were you a major buyer at $850? If you were not a buyer last month, you were not buying weakness, as you see the Gold Price has moved nicely off of $860 recently, that means gold has moved into the strength category; along with this comes giddiness. Keep the same game plan - Long Gold and accumulate on weakness, emotional control and money management. Many opinions are that the dollar may crash and the gold price could spike, however intervention is likely to prevent both from happening, and so far we have orderly moves. How long this will last, no one knows.

Here is a quote from Dan Norcini from (
"As you can see on the chart, gold broke into the resistance zone marked out on the chart and then managed to poke its head above that. The ability to hold above this level for another day would signal that a drive to $990 is underway. Expect a fierce battle should price move to that level. If gold does not stop and pause for a bit of a breather at that point, it could well signal that things are spiraling rapidly out of control."

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Signs the Gold Price is About to Make a Transition

Technical signs the GOLD PRICE is now entering a powerful bull move includes a break above a recent downtrend line accompanied by a higher low from the $850 low made during the first week of May. This breakout can be accompanied by a correction to around the nose (910) but then a powerful advance should be accompanied shortly after. I am looking for a powerful crossover in the MACD indicator.

This bull move could easily be one of the most powerful bull moves since Gold started its Bull Market phase back in the year 2000.

The GOLD PRICE, still way below its inflation adjusted value of $2,200.00 (minimum) may surprise many on how fast this gap may be closed as the realization that GOLD is becoming more of a currency and shedding some its identity as a commodity.

For a review of the GOLD STAGES: (Author Jim Sinclair)

Note: Any failure for the dollar to find support @ 71.10 could ignite the gold price dramatically here:

Friday, June 20, 2008

Gold Price Accelerating vs Time?

The trend for the gold price is obviously heating up. Last August when Central banks slashed rates and were willing to accept non performing OTC derivatives on their balance sheets to avoid a collapse of the financial system you knew the gold price was going to go parabolic.

As The Fed continues to monetize debt and flood the world with money, (M3 now hidden) I expect the gold price to continue its accelerating uptrend until it finds its inflation adjusted levels. For now I'm accumulating and sitting tight for a few years still before I sell any gold.