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Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Oil and the Yuan

Rising prices that the average Tom, Dick and Harry has to pay normally day to day, week to week, month to month are rising in China and upsetting the Chinese. They had wopping price inflation at the time of the Tianimen Square suppression.

The Chinese central bank has had to create a lot of Yuan out of thin air so that they have something to buy USD with to keep the Yuan pegged to the USD. Selling the Yuan, to buy USD, depresses the value of the Yuan. China buys a lot from other countries and has had a deficit with most of its trading partners unlike its US trading partner. So, the cost of imports has been going up for the Chinese since the USD topped out the beginning of 2002.

US oil inventories are above average with new oil price highs. So maybe the information privileged know to stock up on oil prior to a new phase/event/push of WWIII.

Bush just might be crazy enough to start bombing some other country(s). The US economy is slowing slightly. If the slowing speeds up, he'll need a new distraction for Americans to pay attention to.

Nasty business, this government stuff.

Now this is not to say that the overall bull market in commodities is over. But there could be a decent correction coming up.

Tidbit:

The Central Fund of Canada is trading at virtually no premium. A screaming steal and contrarian indicator. You have to go back to the beginning of the start of the gold bull to find this condition.

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