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Thursday, June 14, 2007

Gold Price Timing

There is interesting support at 640 to a little bit above. There seems to be a battle royal going on between big smart money and the central banks and their cohorts. Open interest is up big time as gold was going down. The first time in this bull market that that has happened.

Further support comes from the second more upwardly sloping major trend line. On top of this, the equal spacing tool says either a significant low or high is due at the beginning of July. It might be a high about equal to the 2006 April high above $700. That would be a natural resistance point for the gold price to hesitate at before taking off to new all time bull market highs.

The big bull market gold picture:




Timely fundamentals/technicals supportive of the gold price rising somewhere around this point in time:

1. 10 year notes and 30 year bonds have broken down through their 25+ year long price uptrend lines. Rising interest rates are a negative for government revenues, business revenues and for the consumer. Every which way, the US has more debt than it did before the last great depression that lasted between 1930 and 1945.

2. The Dow is acting toppy here recently. It should with the cost of debt going up. In February of this year, it put in a 4+ (5) down days in a row topping signal. More recently, in the first week of June, it put in a 2b topping signal (within 4 days after a high, it closed lower than the previous low's close).

3. The USD is getting up close to its important down trend line.

4. The Treasury/Fed are currently increasing M3 at around a 14% annualized rate, a 33 year high according to http://www.shadowstats.com/ . http://www.nowandfutures.com/ has a reconstructed M3, too, but needs updating (once every three weeks).

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