Silver and Gold Prices Have Already Bottomed

Gold Price Close Today : 883.70
Change: 0.80 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.158
Change: 31.5 cents or 1.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.94
Change: -0.12 or -0.2%

SILVER and GOLD PRICE action since last Thursday, combined with the stock market and the dollar index is consistent with my suspicion that silver and gold prices have already bottomed.

It's possible still that we'll see a sudden, brief downward spike in silver and gold prices, but that grows less likely every day.

Remember y'all should have bought all your bargain-basement silver and gold by mid to end May.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Silver and Gold Prices are Bottoming Right Now - If You Fail to Buy this Month, You Will Miss the Bargain Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 869.60
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 876
Change: -6.40 or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.617
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.780
Change: 16.3 cents or -1.0%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.53
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73
Change: 0.54 or 0.7%

I hate to give y'all downside targets, because I know from my own feeble performance that we never hear a range of lower targets, only the lowest price. So if I tell you that the SILVER PRICE may bottom from $16.00 to $15.20, y'all only hear "$15.20," and, waiting for that very price, you don't buy when it actually bottoms at $16.00 or $15.80. Human nature.

How do you overcome it? Set a price at which you will buy silver, and regardless how you feel, butterflies in stomach, puking in wastebasket, etc., just buy when you hit that price, and never look back.

Silver and gold prices are bottoming right now. By mid-May or end-May latest, this correction will be history. If you fail to buy this month, you will miss the bargain prices.

Third, right about now we should see silver and gold prices begin to make a double bottom, as they react to resistance at $16.80 - $17.00 and $880-$890. Don't go to sleep; don't let the seeming lack of action lull you into inaction.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES will probably make another run at $16.80 - $17.00 and $880 - $890 resistance tomorrow. Of course they could cut clean thru and never look back, but I suspect that after this try or the next they will fall back, make a double bottom or lower bottom, and put an end for good to this downward correction.

The Dow in Gold Dollars is behaving as it did from May 2006 to July 2007, when it should have rallied to G$475 (22.978 oz, the half-way point of its fall from the 8/1999 high) but never managed to get higher than G$436 (21.092 oz) -- promising, promising, promising, but never delivering. If the DiG$ now reached its 200 DMA, it would hit about G$334 (16.491 oz), but so far has reached only G$315 (15.238 oz). Stocks' continuing failure to rally strongly against gold underscores their bear market weakness against both silver and gold prices.

The DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE today fell back 206.48 points to close at 12,814.35. Odd -- Dow just cannot seem to gain and keep ground, hinting at inward weakness. No secret where I stand: sell stocks and put the proceeds in silver and gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, after yesterday's fall, climbed 53.8 basis points to close at 73.534. The dollar's rally offers you an opportunity to swap dollar-denominated and dollar-paying assets for silver and gold. Never mind this little rally, the US dollar is locked in a primary down trend, so you want to get out of dollars and into silver and gold. "Out of dollars" means shuck any investment that promises to pay you dollars, because dollars tomorrow will surely be worth less than dollars today. Get out of annuities, insurance policies, certificates of deposit, bonds, anything that pays dollars in the future.

Gold Price Needs Close Strong Through $880 and then Close Above $904 to End Downside Action in Silver and Gold Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 876
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 872.30
Change: 3.7 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.780
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.746
Change: 3.4 cents or 0.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 73
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.18
Change: -0.19 or -0.3%

This was the sort of day that doesn't leave much to say in its wake. The GOLD PRICE rose a little, stocks rose a little, the US Dollar Index fell below 73.00 to close at 72.996. No big changes. But as I observed yesterday, the gold price is bumping against that $880 ceiling and the silver price against $16.80. These before offered support, now as surely present resistance.

If the gold price were to close strong through $880 and then advanced sharply to close above $904, I'd say we weren't about to see any more downside action in silver and gold prices. Until that happens, brace yourself for what might be a double bottom. Does that mean I wouldn't buy. Risk from $876 is down to $800, say 9.5%, for the silver price to max $15.20 or 9.6%. Viewing the long term bull market, that's acceptable risk. Don't waste the whole month waiting.

Stock market looks like its fizzling to me, losing its positive inertia. At this rate it will never make it to 14,000.

We are still waiting, and will keep on waiting, until the Gold/Silver ratio drops below 38.6:1 to swap silver for gold.

If we were swapping at all right now, we would swap gold for silver if you would like to leave an open order to swap silver for gold please call us at (888) 218-9226. Please mention goldprice.org when you call.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com


To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Buy Both Silver and Gold at These Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 872.30
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 856.1
Change: 16.20 or 1.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.746
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.381
Change: 36.5 cents or 2.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.18
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 73.514
Change: -0.33 or -0.5%

GOLD and SILVER PRICES steadily advanced today. They've just about reached the previous bottoms, now become resistance rather than support. Gold's resistance kicks in at $875 and silver's at $16.75.

Tomorrow should be interesting. Coming off such a long decline, silver and gold prices have a number of rising days ahead. Once that falters and corrects, we'll have confirmation of bottoms in the metals, but for now I must tentatively conclude we have seen those bottoms. Physical demand remains very, very strong as bargain hunters crowd in to buy at these low prices.

Buy both silver and gold at these prices.

Stocks' advance has carried the Dow as high as its 200 day moving average (today 13,044) but, as you might expect, the Dow's feet have gotten tangled trying to work through this barbed wire fence. I suspect higher prices are coming, but wouldn't it devastate stocks if the Dow couldn't pierce the 200 DMA?

The schizophrenic US DOLLAR INDEX, father of ulcers everywhere, dropped 33 basis points today to trade now at 73.18. I don't doubt it's headed higher, to 76.50 or 77, but it will torture everyone on the way.

On this day in 1893, panic hit the New York Stock Exchange. By year-end, the entire country was suffering a severe depression. The more things change (as the French say) the more they stay the same.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com


To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Gold and Silver Bull Market Won't End Before 2014 or 2015

Gold Price Close Today : 856.1
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 887.2
Change: -31.1 or -3.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.381
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.85
Change: -49.90 cents or -2.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.514
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 72.668
Change: 0.846 or 1.2%


It's more than a little odd and bewildering that both SILVER and GOLD PRICES have been correcting for more time than the 2004 and 2006 crashes, but so far at less price loss. In other words, the correction ought to be complete in time, but not in price. This jumps to the conclusion that 2008's correction has finished, and will be shallower in price than 2004 and 2006.

By way of comparison, the gold price has dropped 15.4% so far from its 18 March 2008 high, against 12.4% in 2004 and 21.9% in 2006. The silver price as of 1 May had dropped 21.6% from its high, but in 2004 dropped 32.8% and 35.4% in 2006.

Trying to mesh this with the metals' seasonal patterns leads to more bewilderment. Usually metals drop into end-June/July for a low after a high in May, then make another high in October/November. Sometimes, just to mess with your mind, they peak & trough in the opposite seasons. This year they peaked in mid-March(huh?) and looks like they will trough by mid-May, end-May latest. Will they then rise into the summer, the usual seasonal low? Or will they trade sideways until August and then begin climbing?

About the only near-certainty here is that this correction will have ended by May 31. Mercy -- it may have already bottomed. Proof of that will only come, however, by a successful test of the lows so far.

Now everybody has his head turned down, so what are the maximum lows we might expect? US$785 on gold and $13.29 on silver. But I've been through this enough times to know that bending over looking for a bottom you'll get a crick in your neck that puts a crick in your trading. You are looking for a bottom so hard that you miss it when it comes, looking for one further down. That's silly. Silver & gold are in a bull market. What if you buy today and they drop another 10%? The bull market's rising tide will bail you out. I've worried and vexed myself about every one of these drops since 1999, and now the difference between $4.05 and $4.50, or US$342 and US$310 seems like no difference at all.

Of course, this sort of weather also brings out the really gigantic croakers. They're now singing that the deflationary depression is coming that will take gold down to $35 again and silver to 25 cents, etc., etc. and the bull market in silver and gold has ended. Well, suum quique, to each his own, but I doubt it. The metals bull market began in 2001. It won't end before 2014 or 2015, if then. Stay with your positions, add to them while metals are correcting and low, and shut your ears to the croakers like Ulysses shut his crews' ears to the Sirens. His own he left open, but he tied himself to the mast.

STOCKS are rallying, and the Dow industrials should carry to 14,000. Dow Transports made a new all-time high on 30 April, and whether the Industrials confirm that or not, for now that fuels stock optimism. Rallying stocks helps silver, so don't complain, just don't get suckered into buying or keeping stocks. Stock rally seems destined to carry into summer, again, differing from the usual flat summer pattern.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is just a-rallyin' and a-rallyin', picking up all the easy money off the inflexible & unwary shorts. Look for this rally to work its way toward 77 before it ends, but it won't hurt silver or gold too much. They've already established themselves as the alternative currencies to all fiat national currencies.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com


To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Buy Some Silver Here. It's on Sale. If it Drops Further, Buy More.

Gold Price Close Today : 848.90
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 862.80
Change: 13.90 or -1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.121
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.502
Change: -38.1 cents or -2.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.24
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 72.61
Change: 0.64 or 0.9%

Whew! That was some kind of reversal today. Yesterday after the market closed both silver and gold shot up, and it looked like a perfect key reversal -- break into new low territory then higher close -- but it obviously wasn't. Just as metals appeared yesterday to have turned up, stocks looked to have broken down.

The GOLD PRICE closed today down $13.90 at $848.90, after a high of $877.88 and a low of $845.90. Very simply, the gold price is locked in a downtrend. In time it has already fulfilled the profile of these waterfall crashes, but keeps falling. Support stands right here, at $848, then at $837, and $800, where the apex of a previous triangle stands. The 200 day moving average, another support area, stands at $821.95.

After yesterday's strong aftermarket, the $16.60 SILVER PRICE level broke early this morning then waterfall-ed to a low at $15.96 and spent the rest of the day bouncing up on $16.20. Support beneath us lies at $16.00, $15.25-$15.30, $15.00, and $13.74. Looking at past waterfalls, this one has lasted long enough. Expect silver's price low within the next two weeks longest. Don't forget the danger of looking so hard for a bottom that you miss it. Buy some silver here. It's on sale. If it drops further, buy more. It's on sale.

Today stocks broke 12,950 and then ran to close at 13,010. On 30 April I missed a new high close on the Dow Transports, which means higher stock prices if the Dow Industrials confirm with a new all time high close. That Dow Theory signal is normally very powerful, but remember the Transports must be confirmed by the Industrials. This rally finds itself (as also metals) outside -- way outside -- the seasonal pattern, assuming it has two to three months to run. Nor is a stock rally bad news for metals, since silver historically outperforms gold when stocks are rising. That should bring us closer to that lower ratio where swapping silver for gold will be profitable.

The US Dollar Index is headed higher, faster than we're accustomed to see. It closed today above its 50 DMA, up about 64 basis points at 73.242. Expect the dollar to teach all its despisers a lesson. 74.50 is first resistance, then 75.20. It could peak anywhere form 75.20 to 77 over the next two to three months.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com


To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Lowest Silver Price We'll See for Quite a While

Gold Price Close Today : 862.80
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 874.2
Change: -11.40 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.502
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.54
Change: -3.8 cents or -0.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.61
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 72.85
Change: -0.24 or -0.3%

Sorry, Franklin Sanders is finishing his monthly Moneychanger newsletter today and so can't write a commentary. He wants to point out, however, that based on the aftermarket, silver and gold prices put in the first half of a key reversal upward, and the Dow put in the first half of a key reversal downward. He thinks that today's will be the lowest silver price we'll see for quite a while.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com


To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.