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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI came in at 41.5 last month, down from 49.1 in March. While this indicates a steep contraction, the figure is better than the expected drop to 36.9. Employment sunk dramatically to 27.5, while new orders fell to 27.1.

Personal income fell 2% in March along with disposable income as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic continues to affect people’s lives and finances. Consumer spending took a major drop of 7.5%, with most households remaining indoors. This resulted in net savings of 13.1%, up from 8%, due to the drop in spending outpacing that of incomes. PCE came in at 1.3% annually and core PCE came in at 1.7%.

Initial jobless claims soared by another 3.8 million in the week ended April 25, above the expected figure of 3.5 million claims. Last week’s figures are down from the week before which registered 4.44 million claims. In the last six weeks, over 30 million Americans have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic still sweeping the nation.

On the same day that the US government reported an annualized contraction of 4.8% for the American economy in Q1, the Federal Reserve concluded their first two-day meeting since drastically slashing interest rates to near 0% and initiating a raft of monetary operations and support facilities aimed at helping America’s people and businesses weather the current crisis. Chairman Jerome Powell and that Fed’s FOMC, as was broadly expected, announced no new actions following the meeting but used their core communications channels to affirm the central bank’s commitment to ultra-low interest rates and an un-banded program of asset purchases in support of the economy and its eventual recovery.

The US economy shrank for the first time since 2014 with 4.8% decline vs. 3.5% decline expected in Q1. The coronavirus outbreak has dragged on all aspects of the economy, ending the 11-year period of expansion which was the longest in US history.

Good morning, traders. Welcome to our Monday preview of the week ahead, focusing on the economic data and market narratives most likely to have an impact on gold and precious metals pricing, as well as the US Dollar and other key correlated assets.

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, focused on the news and economic data that means the most for the gold market as well as the Dollar and other correlated assets.

After rising 1.1% in February, durable goods orders plunged 14.4% in March according to the latest report from the US Commerce Department. The reading came in worse than expectations of 11.9% decline. The drop mars the worst fall since 2014, driven down by the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak and resulting oil price drop on the manufacturing sector.

The Markit manufacturing PMI dropped to 36.9 in April, down from 48.5 the month before and below expectations of 38. The services PMI sunk even further from 39.8 to 27, indicating greatly reduced activity in both sectors. Markit’s chief business economist Chris Williamson stated that April saw the coronavirus deal “a blow to the US economy of a ferocity not previously seen in recent history.”

An additional 4.27 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 18, in line with the expectation of 4.5 million. This follows 5.23 million the week before, revised down from 5.24 million. The unemployment rate is now likely to approach 20% in the next two months.

The spread between the spot price of gold—that is, to buy/sell physical gold for immediate delivery—and the price of an active futures contract for gold—a paper trade guaranteeing physical gold at a later date—is typically fairly efficient. That is to say, the two prices are normally within a few Dollars. In late March of this year, as the Covid-19 pandemic crisis firmly wrapped itself around the global economy, that same spread (often referred to by traders as the EFP, or Exchange-for-Physical) blew out as the gold futures price rose an unreal $80 above spot. The market has been making efforts to moderate the drastic dislocation, but last week the gap was still $35/oz; even in this morning’s trading the EFP is roughly $15.

Good morning, traders. Welcome to our weekly preview of the market calendar, where we focus primary on the economic data and market narrative that could have the biggest impact on gold and silver prices, as well as the Dollar and precious metals’ other correlated assets.