Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets—and may continue to in the future.
So, what kind of week has it been?
Here's what you need to know:
- Gold traded relatively steadily around $4,600/oz for most of the week before falling sharply on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks. Spot prices slowed their descent near $4,460/oz by midday, but firm post-speech support had not yet been established.
- The week's primary driver was Warsh's more hawkish-than-expected Jackson Hole address, which emphasized a direct focus on returning inflation to the Fed's 2% target despite recent inflation data coming in better than expected.
- Earlier in the week, gold remained comparatively stable as the most volatile effects of last week's US Treasury announcement on repurchasing long-dated government bonds faded and July's PCE Price Index failed to trigger a major move.
- Next week, traders will focus on the August Jobs Report due on Friday, along with any public comments from Fed officials that may show how closely the broader central bank aligns with Warsh's policy stance.
So, What Kind of a Week Has It Been?
After four sessions of relatively stable trading around the $4,600/oz price point, gold spot was pressed sharply lower on Friday morning as a result of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's opening address at the Fed's Jackson Hole summit, Warsh's first presiding as head of the US central bank.
Bond-Market Calm Keeps Gold Near $4,600
The most volatile impact of last week's surprise announcement that the US Treasury will double down on repurchasing long-dated US government bonds seems to have passed even before this week's trading began in earnest, and we saw no new announcements or major challenges over the last few days. Gold prices therefore ran a relatively steady line around $4,600 for most of the week, although it is likely that a good amount of this stability was enforced by last week's bond-market news having raised the floor of support for the yellow metal. Gold was mostly unchanged at the time that July's PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, printed on Wednesday.
Warsh Resets the Rate Outlook at Jackson Hole
However, Warsh has clearly reset the table in the minds of traders and money managers with his Jackson Hole address. The Fed Chair appeared to make an effort to speak in somewhat more concrete terms after his recent post-FOMC meeting press conferences disappointed markets by coming off as noncommittal at best and deeply unimpressive—in terms of Warsh's grasp of just how big the job he finds himself installed in is—at worst. The result was a more hawkish-than-expected speech that effectively guaranteed a direct focus on fighting US inflation back down to the Fed's mandated target of 2%, which, according to Warsh, will require more direct effort from the Federal Reserve despite recent inflation data looking better than expected.
Following the Chair's speech, the market repriced the projected monetary policy path, and Fed Funds Futures now imply a greater than 50% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates one to two times before the end of 2026. This pivot back to expectations for a higher interest-rate environment has, of course, been a bearish signal for gold prices while at the same time boosting US Treasury yields and the US Dollar markedly higher. The yellow metal's spot prices fell sharply throughout the morning, and while the descent seemed to have slowed somewhat by midday at $4,460/oz, there is no guarantee that firm support after Jackson Hole has been established yet. In particular, traders will want to watch how Asian markets trade in their first hours after the Fed Chair's remarks, which will not come until Sunday evening.
Looking Ahead
Given that the health and stability of the US labor market stand to be most at risk if the Fed were to resume raising interest rates, the August Jobs Report due next Friday will be very closely watched. We expect the majority of gold trading between Monday and Friday morning to be focused on positioning for that data. We will also be keen to see any public comments from key Fed officials to gauge just how aligned more tenured central bankers are with the Fed chief.
In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I'll see you back here next week for another market recap.
