GoldPrice.

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets—and may continue to in the future.

Gold prices moved with some volatility midweek, before settling in relatively flat to Sunday evenings open. This week, traders navigated the business close of October 2024 while keeping an eye on one of the most uncertain trading weeks of 2024, just over the horizon.

So, what kind of week has it been?

Trading through the end of business for October 2024, we’ve seen some fireworks in the gold market but— factoring in the macroeconomic data delivered this week—not in the spot or in the direction that we would have expected.

Gold prices kicked off the week with a strong pulse as the yellow metal looked to continue consolidating recent gains a week before the November FOMC meeting, with the related update to monetary policy in action (a 25 basis-point cut? No change at all?) still uncertain. Spot prices not only looked unchallenged after a quick retraction from Friday’s closing bids but rebounded with greater stability/lower volatility throughout the Monday session, re-staking a position above $2750/oz by the earliest hours of Tuesday morning (in the US.)

On Tuesday, whether initiated by a vague but increasing sense of uncertainty about the results and potential aftermath of the US federal elections one week from the day or by updated polling data (itself “vague” and “uncertain,” at best), investors across several major asset classes were gripped by a manic/depressive swing into risk-off positioning. With the usually stalwart US dollar in an uncommon position at the center of geopolitical uncertainty, gold was traded as the clear preference for safety and hedging. The heavy inflow into the yellow metal drove spot prices as high as new records above $2780 at the beginning of Wednesday’s session.

If there’s one thing usually liable to overrule a mood shift in the marketplace about political uncertainty, of course, that’s the opportunity to book a profit. As European markets spun up for their Thursday session, the final business day of October, traders and managers began an exercise of locking in profits from their gold books for the month’s P&L by liquidating some longs. We presume this was the key driver throughout Thursday’s trading because the factors that had appeared to drive the yellow metal to new midweek highs remained, for the most part, unchanged. With the run-on profit-taking trades driving gold bid/ask marks lower, the spot market slipped to end the month’s trading below October 30th’s level but still at a profit compared to October 1st’s pricing and a still eye-watering high of $2740.

Where we would have expected to see this level of volatility in gold (if not more of it) would be a massive disappointment in macro data along the lines of the Non-Farm Payrolls number printing below expectations by a margin of nearly 90%, which is what was delivered on Friday, via the October Jobs Report. In the initial trade, any concerns about what this could imply for near- to medium-term interest rate policies went out the window as gold rode its inflation-hedge reputation on a rebound as high as $2761/oz, but the FOMC couldn’t be driven from traders’ minds for long. Before lunchtime in New York, we’ve seen the market’s lack of clarity (as a consensus, at least) about the Fed’s next policy move in light of such ugly labor market data mute the tailwinds moving gold’s initial rally. Gold has slumped back for most of Friday’s trading so far—but not in sharp drops or steep lines—to a $2735 level that marks the metal roughly even with Monday’s start. Not exactly the frenetic trading session we would have predicted an NFP count of just 12,000 would create.

Maybe the potential for a gold sell-off was muted by the price weakness that preceded Friday’s data report, or, looking forward, maybe markets, in general, are trading with a greatly increased sense of noncommittal caution ahead of a real double-whammy next week: Tuesday’s US Federal election, followed immediately by a crucial FOMC meeting the next day. We can’t say we’re not about to be trading through some interesting times.

In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I’ll see you back here next week for another market recap.