Good morning, traders; Welcome to our market week preview, where we take a look at the economic data, market news and headlines likely to have the biggest impact the price of gold this week and beyond, as well as market prices for silver, the US Dollar, and other key correlated assets.
Gold’s spot price continues to hold on to a majority of last week’s outstanding gains this morning, even as dropping US Treasury prices are driving the 10-year yield back to 1.6% in challenge to the yellow metal’s trajectory.
For gold traders, it may be worth tracking this week how far above 1.6% the benchmark yield might climb, or if it can sustain itself near those levels. The data calendar is quieter this week, but does give us new Retail Sales numbers on Tuesday and an important measure of manufacturing sector stability later in the week. Also on the docket: a crowded list of appearances from Fed officials which will certainly be read and parsed for reaction to last week’s jump in CPI data.
For now, let’s take a look at the rest of the calendar ahead.
US Economic Data to Watch
Tuesday, November 16 at 830am EST // Retail Sales (Oct)
[consensus est.: +1.3% MoM // prev.: +0.7%]
Similar to inflation data, the “headline” measure of Retail Sales growth for October will be boosted by rising gas prices over the last month; but the less volatile “core” measurements are still expected to be strong as well, as higher prices so far haven’t seemed to keep the American consumer from spending. A number of reputable desks seem to be projecting numbers lower than the consensus, however, so there’s some downside risk. A miss here likely lifts gold prices as a knee-jerk reaction from investors and managers going risk-off, but it’s tough to predict how that information might impact gold prices (if at all) beyond the immediate response. A number that’s on the mark or slightly better might boost the Dollar slightly, but probably doesn’t move the gold chart much.
Thursday, November 18 at 830am EST // Philadelphia Fed Mfg. Index (Nov)
[consensus est.: 24.0 // prev.: 23.8]
Inflation is higher around the globe, and in the US that’s translation not only to higher consumer prices but also higher prices for producers’ raw materials (which feeds into consumer price inflation as well.) The overall rate of growth in the manufacturing sector for the Philly Fed’s region is expect to remain steady, but investors and analysts will be watching to see if there are any negative surprises as a result of 2021’s hot inflation. Based on the reaction to last week’s CPI, it’s possible that signs of higher prices crimping the US manufacturing sector would initially drive gold prices higher.
Thursday, November 18 at 830am EDT // Initial Jobless Claims
[consensus est.: +260K // prev.: +267K]
Last week’s aggressive inflation data has pulled the market’s attention away from the labor market recovery, for the time being at least. Although it’s unlikely to have a tangible impact on markets for now, the weekly rate of new unemployment claims has continued to slide steadily, if slowly, downward. So far, we seem to be trending towards another healthy Jobs Report at the end of this month; but any surprises there are liable to pull the spotlight right back from the inflation debate.
FedSpeak this Week
We’ve said before that the efforts of Fed watchers in the coming months will often focus on tracking: how committed the FOMC is to the current path of tapering; what shifts in the economy’s recovery might compel them to alter that path; and how closely the committee plans to link the end of the taper to their first rate hike. Following last week’s surprising surge in consumer inflation numbers, the second question will be front of mind during a crowded slate of Fed commentary this week.
Wednesday: New York Fed President John Williams (FOMC voter) (910am EST); Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (non-voter) (1120am); Fed Governor Christopher Waller (FOMC voter) (1120am); San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (FOMC voter) (1240pm)
Thursday: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (FOMC voter) (8am EST); New York President Williams (930am); Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (FOMC voter) (2pm); San Francisco President Daly (330pm)
Friday: Fed Governor Waller (1045am EST); Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida (FOMC voter) (1215pm)
And that’s how the week lays out ahead of us, traders. As always, I wish you all the very best of luck in your markets in the coming days, and I’ll look forward to seeing you all back here on Friday for our market-week wrap up.