Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets—and may continue to in the future.
So, what kind of week has it been?
Here's what you need to know:
- Gold endured a rough week to close out Q3 and open the final quarter of 2026, sliding to a multi-month low near $4,115/oz before staging a partial recovery. By Friday morning, the yellow metal was still tracking toward a second consecutive weekly loss.
- The week's primary pressure came from the bond market. A relentless Treasury selloff pushed the 10-year yield to a 24-year high near 5.34%, compounding the structural pressure on gold following the Federal Reserve's September rate hike.
- Softer macro data offered gold some relief. August PCE inflation came in below consensus, while September payroll growth slowed to just +29,000 jobs, reducing market expectations for another rate hike at the Fed's October meeting.
- Next week, traders will focus on the September FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday for clues about how strongly policymakers favor additional tightening after this week's softer inflation and labor-market data.
So, What Kind of a Week Has It Been?
Gold prices have endured a rough trading week that has set a bearish tone to close out Q3 and open the final quarter of 2026, with the majority of volatility packed into the first part of the week in $/oz terms. Friday morning trading has reenergized the chart, only within a much tighter band, as the yellow metal moves toward a second consecutive weekly drop. Entering the week under structural pressure from the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike, spot gold slid to a multi-month low near $4,115/oz by Monday evening. That downward trajectory was reinforced by a relentless bond market selloff that pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to a 24-year high near 5.34% later in the week.
However, the latter half of the week delivered some macroeconomic data points that may open a reprieve for gold. A cooler-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditures report—the inflation metric closely watched by the Federal Reserve—and a softer September NFP print eroded expectations of a near-term October interest rate hike. Spot gold staged a moderate recovery from its early-week lows, climbing as high as $4,190 and then above $4,210 immediately after Friday's labor-market data. But the persistence of a historically strong US dollar and elevated yields continues to cap broader breakout attempts, and the initial pop on Friday morning was quickly sold as the precious metal fell back below $4,138/oz.
Cooling PCE Inflation Gives Gold Some Breathing Room
The core fundamental driver for the precious metals market mid-week was the release of the August PCE Price Index on Wednesday. As the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the data showed headline PCE rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, below consensus estimates of 0.4% and 3.7%, respectively. More importantly, Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose a modest 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, below the expected 3.3% annual rate. The softer inflation data helped reduce market-implied expectations for a second consecutive rate hike at the October FOMC meeting.
Weak September Payrolls Cool October Rate-Hike Bets
Friday's highly anticipated September Nonfarm Payrolls report may have further reduced expectations for a near-term rate hike. The US economy added just +29,000 jobs in September, representing a significant slowdown from August's NFP number, which itself was revised lower by -29,000 to +133,000. The unemployment rate also edged up to 4.2%. With the US labor market showing clear signs of cooling, the report gave markets another reason to expect the Fed to proceed cautiously before raising rates again, absent a renewed acceleration in inflation pressures.
Looking Ahead
Next week, we will get the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, which delivered a unanimous vote to raise rates for the first time since 2023. In the discussion notes, traders and market analysts will search for clues about how policymakers viewed the balance between persistent inflation pressures and labor-market risks—and whether this week's softer data could strengthen the case for pausing before another rate hike. The minutes are scheduled for release on Wednesday, October 7.
In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I'll see you back here next week for another market recap.
