Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future.
Here’s what you need to know:
- Gold prices showed volatility but ended the week higher, closing above $3355/oz.
- Market movement was driven largely by trade war rhetoric and tariff actions, not hard data.
- Despite hawkish FOMC minutes, gold prices held firm and continued to climb.
- New copper tariffs heightened industrial metal volatility, supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
So, What Kind of a Week Has it Been?
Gold’s five-day chart has what looks like a deep sawtooth pattern up until a sharp line higher here at the end. This is misleading, however, as the yellow metal’s range for most of the week has been just $20-30/oz. While it’s a concerning realization for experienced traders who want a more concrete set of inputs to base their price projections on, this first full week of trading in July seems to have gold moving in very “vibes-based” trends.
Light Data, Heavy Rhetoric
That observation is due in part to the fact that there is a very light data calendar this week. In fact, “data” suggests more tangibility than is really there for the single major macroeconomic input we received— the meeting minutes from last month’s FOMC. The rest of the trading momentum for gold, as well as the US Dollar and other related major asset classes, was heightening rhetoric around the Trump Tariffs and still-present risk of a full-on trade war sparked by the US.
Tariff Turbulence and the Dollar
The Dollar strengthened considerably at the start of the week as traders braced for Wednesday, originally tipped to be the date that the White House’s “Freedom Day” tariffs were scheduled to take effect. This had the impact of weighing gold prices down as far as $3300/oz in Sunday evening trade, but here the metal found supportive buyers. And as the start of the US’ Monday came with early indications that the Trump Administration was ready to back down on its threats, gold found headroom again and climbed somewhat easily back to $3330 and above.
Of course, the pattern repeated itself—initiated by new and destabilizing, if vague, threats on trade restrictions— and again the Greenback’s rally tripped gold spot prices lower. This time, gold has to fall far enough to briefly test the water below support (roughly $3290) before rallying again.
Fed Minutes vs Market Momentum
Where we might have actually anticipated weakening gold prices was in the wake of the FOMC minutes, which painted a picture of the US central bankers as hardly eager to cut rates in the immediate term, especially not later this month. This is despite recent public commentary from some Fed officials (potentially angling for the White House’s good graces when Chair Powell’s term expires) to the contrary.
We looked for such a strong signal that a lower rate environment, expected to directly benefit gold investment, would weigh down on the yellow metal, but in fact, prices not only held relatively steady, but have mostly only risen since the Fed Minutes were made public.
Tariffs Hit Copper—Gold Follows
Thursday and Friday’s trading has seen gold continue to climb for now three consecutive sessions, and is looking set to close the week above $3355/oz. This is due in large part to the announcement of new tariffs imposed by the US vastly outstripping the few announcements (or even suggestions) of deals being reached with trade partners.
Gold’s climb and general feel of volatility also relates closely to the White House now directly levying tariffs in the metal commodities space with a 50% duty on copper. Copper and gold are not quite directly linked, but copper market changes often ripple through to another industrial metal—silver— which does often push or pull on the gold market with considerable force.
Next Week’s Data Watch
Next week, we get a little closer to the world of the real, at least in terms of macro data, with an updated consumer inflation print on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Thursday. Whether or not hard numbers can reassert control over the markets’ mood from the intangibility of uncertainty remains to be seen.
In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I’ll see you back here next week for another market recap.
