Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets—and may continue to in the future.
Here’s what you need to know:
- Gold briefly pushed to new all-time highs this week, repeatedly reclaiming $4,600/oz and printing a new record near midweek.
- Even with a softer core CPI print and stronger retail sales, risk-off sentiment stayed firm enough through Wednesday to keep gold supported.
- A resurgent US Dollar in the back half of the week put pressure on gold, driving a pullback from the highs and re-centering the fight around $4,600.
- A late-week easing of immediate geopolitical escalation helped cool the safety bid, triggering a sharp but short-lived dip before gold stabilized below $4,600.
So, What Kind of a Week Has it Been?
This week's price action for gold has had more ups and downs than what became the status quo in Q4 of 2025. Whereas most weekly snapshots reflected pricing climbing steadily over five sessions, or else (less often) dropping sharply in a single session before stabilizing for the remainder of the week, over the last five days, gold has briefly touched new all-time highs before reeling back on Thursday and Friday.
Importantly, however, spot and futures prices still remain in the neighborhood of the records.
Risk-Off Rally Sends Gold Back Through $4,600
There was, of course, a strong rally in gold as a risk-off play when markets opened Sunday night, persisting through Monday morning's trading, in reaction to the weekend announcement from the Federal Reserve that its officials were under investigation by the DOJ.
Under reasonable concerns of instability, the yellow metal blew through $4600/oz for a period of Monday's trading (a level we had previously noted as apparent resistance) before moderating just below that level from a high near $4620.
Over the last five days, there has been little to no effort to turn down the temperature on this new—or at least newly escalated—story. Rather, investors' heads have been turned instead by a super-heating of rhetoric from Washington about contemplating military intervention in the deepening civil conflict in Iran and/or the US executive's interest in possessing Greenland as a US territory.
Regardless of where one tries to (or is forced to) focus one's attention, uncertainty about market stability and a total lack of effort to cool any of the agglomeration of geopolitical tensions continued to support gold as a safe-haven asset.
As a result, gold spot prices have made multiple trips back above $4600 this week, culminating in another all-time high on Wednesday of $4638.
Inflation, Retail Sales, and The Dollar Shift The Tone
The level of risk-off sentiment through Wednesday was high enough to maintain this play into gold even as core CPI for December (+2.6% vs. +2.7% exp) and retail sales growth for November (+0.6% vs. +0.4% exp) beat expectations, and both made the case against a rush for the FOMC to continue lowering interest rates.
And while the motivations for this pervasive sense of uncertainty have remained constant, one key change in the second half this week as been a resurgent US Dollar; perhaps due in large part to the better-than-expected US economic data that printed this week (as well as the macabre assumption that if any one or two of the current geopolitical messes really goes bad, the US would likely be tallest among the short kings in the collapsing world order.)
Whatever the stated reason, this renewed strength in the Greenback put immediate pressure on traditional non-USD safe havens like gold, pushing the precious metal from the highs and back to the level of $4600 on Thursday.
Friday Pullback, Fast Rebound, and $4,600 Still In Focus
On Friday, finally a release of pressure. As the US walked back suggestions that it might intervene militarily in Iran (escalating what could arguably be the biggest powder keg of the bunch), investors took a breath and loosened grip on pure safety plays.
While this hasn't translated to a sudden swing in risk-appetite—US stocks are only modestly higher at lunch time—gold prices were briefly hit hard with a drop of more than $50/oz mid-morning.
That said, it now appears to be a dissonant combination of attraction and resistance for gold's spot price at $4600. The yellow metal rebounded to $4590/oz within an hour of the sudden sell-off, but so far has appeared to run out of buyers before making a push higher from there.
What We’re Watching Next Week
Last weekend demonstrated that we can't assume that the state of play at Friday's close will carry over to Sunday night/Monday morning. But for now, we'll be watching early next week to judge if there is appetite from investors and managers to maintain gold prices at the current level without a clear path above $4600.
From a data perspective, we will get that comprehensive PCE Price Index read of inflation (delayed) from November 2025, and expect to see more public commentary from key FOMC officials.
In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I'll see you back here next week for another market recap.
