Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets—and may continue to in the future.
So, what kind of week has it been?
Here’s what you need to know:
- Gold’s week turned sharply lower after a much stronger-than-expected May jobs report crushed spot prices by more than $125/oz intraday.
- The May NFP print showed 172,000 jobs added against expectations for 85,000, while the prior month was revised higher by more than 60,000 jobs.
- A fragile 60-day extension to the US-Iran ceasefire helped reduce some geopolitical risk premium that had supported gold near $4,500/oz.
- Next week brings May CPI on Tuesday, followed by the June FOMC meeting ten days from now.
So, What Kind of a Week Has It Been?
With a relatively quiet slate ahead of Friday’s US labor market reporting for May, there was some optimism that gold would have an opportunity to further consolidate its grip at or just below $4,500/oz, a level that has provided decent support so far this summer. And while four days of trading didn’t see any sharp, sustained moves lower, the drift was pointed downward before a blockbuster NFP number crushed spot prices for the yellow metal to the tune of an intraday loss—at the time of writing—of more than $125/oz.
Ceasefire Extension Softens Gold’s Geopolitical Bid
A reassessment of fundamentals appeared to be weighing on gold prices through most of the week. The revelation of a fragile 60-day extension to the US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend has led to a repricing of geopolitical risk, and the de-escalation—perhaps in name only—removes some of the upward pressure from investors’ fears for the worse outcomes that had supported gold near $4,500.
It seems that there would need to be a much more concrete—or at least longer-term—calming of hostilities in order to pass through to projected crude oil prices and, from there, inflation expectations such that concerns about the likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve will calm down and make the environment less hostile for the yellow metal.
May Jobs Report Reprices the Fed Path
Instead, Friday morning’s shock of volatility was driven by a booming Non-Farm Payrolls number within the May Jobs Report that may not directly make a case for the Fed to seriously consider hikes but does greatly reduce the chances of a rate cut between here and the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium in August.
Projected to be an 85K increase, the US economy added 172,000 jobs in May according to the BLS, which also upsized the prior month’s count by more than 60K. Relative to recent performance, going back to Q3 2025, this data is being digested as a key indicator of a US economy that, in spite of the constrictive pressure of higher oil prices—higher everything prices—is running too hot for the Dollar’s central bankers to be in any hurry to lower interest rates further on the assumption that doing so would immediately heat things up further.
As a result, gold spot prices have traded as low as $4,340/oz through Friday morning to print a loss of $135 for the session, more than $200/oz from last week’s close and the lowest bid price in more than three months.
Looking Ahead
Still somewhat unknown in projections of US monetary policy actions in the near and medium term is the impact of newly installed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and how it may differ from his two most recent predecessors. That will change to some extent in ten days’ time with the closing of the June FOMC meeting, Warsh’s first. In the interim, we have one more key macroeconomic data point on deck on Tuesday with the release of consumer inflation measurements for May.
In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I’ll see you back here next week for another market recap.
