GoldPrice

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome back to our Friday recap of the week in the gold market.

October saw 128,000 jobs added to payrolls, well above expectations of around 80,000. September figures were revised upward from 136,000 to 180,000, indicating ongoing strength in the labor market. However, the unemployment rate ticked upward to 3.6%, and growth in the working-age population is shrinking.

Applications for unemployment benefits rose 5,000 to 218,000 for the week ended October 26 according to the Labor Department’s Thursday report. Data for the week prior was revised upward by 1,000.

Personal income and spending rose moderately in September according to Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department. Consumer spending is spurred on by the robust labor market, although the core-personal and consumption expenditure (PCE) index indicates sub-target inflation.

As expected, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC this afternoon delivered a third-consecutive cut to short-term interest rates of 0.25% which, assuming it is the final of the set, ties off the committee’s “mid-cycle adjustment” of 0.75%. Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. seem to be betting on a repeat of the success that 1995’s Fed found in the same strategy which also aimed to avoid (or at least delay) the start of a recession. Based on how unconvinced many—myself included-- have been about the need for even this third cut, it seems to be working. For now.

The US private sector added 125,000 jobs in October, slightly above expectations of 190,000 to 120,000. Payroll gains the month prior were revised down significantly from 135,000 to just 93,000 according to Wednesday’s Moody Analytics report. While hiring data is mixed, the US economy appears to be performing better than expected with a Q3 GDP of 1.9% vs. 1.6% expected.

The Fed Futures market has priced in a 90 percent probability of a 25-basis point cut, to 1.5 to 1.75 percent. What will be more important than the all but certain cut will be the Fed’s future indication. The economic data remains strong while trade tensions and Brexit are still up in the air. The combination makes the outlook for the Fed somewhat uncertain.

Good morning, traders. Welcome back to our preview of the macroeconomic calendar, relevant to the precious metals and currency markets, for the week ahead. The price of gold is considerably lower this morning, having broken back below the $1500/oz level while silver spot prices have also retreated from last week’s mark of $18/oz.

Happy Friday, traders. With markets turning their gaze towards (probably) another “adjustment” to short-term interest rates next week, gold prices have shrugged off a low-energy week to regain an important price level despite some strong selling this morning.

Sales of new single-family homes fell -0.7% in September with shortages of affordable homes still pressuring the market. Low inventory and affordability are persist problems despite a drop in prices representing the largest monthly decrease in 5 years.

Thursday’s report from the Labor Department indicates ongoing strength in the labor market, with applications for initial jobless claims falling unexpectedly. While hiring has slowed considerably, layoffs remain low in a tight labor market. Initial jobless claims dropped to 212,000 for the week ended October 19, below expectations of 215,000.

New orders for durable goods, designed to last more than three years, fell -1.1% in September, indicating softening business investment. This represents a big miss in orders which were forecast at a -0.2% drop. Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department indicates an ongoing trend in business spending, with the decline is likely a result of the ongoing trade war between China and the United States.