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Producer Prices fell 0.2% month over month in March and rose just 0.7% annually. Core-PPI, which excludes the volatile components of food, energy, and trade services, fell 0.2% in March and rose 1% annually. Energy prices fell 6.7% in March, dragging down the headline figure. Food prices remained flat, while trade service costs rose 1.4%.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 04 came in at 6,606,000, down 260,000 from the week before. Over 16.5 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the last three weeks, with the true number of those out of work likely even higher. The previous week’s record-breaking surge in unemployment benefit claims was revised higher from 6.648 to 6.867 million.

The minutes of the FOMC’s March 15 emergency meeting were released as scheduled this afternoon, and, rather than reveal any new information to the market, mostly served to illuminate a picture of the Fed’s outlook which we had already sketched out. Readings of the Fed’s discussion notes describe the Fed as cognizant of the dire stresses that America’s efforts to thwart the spread of Covid-19 will put on the business and credit cycle and committed to aggressively supporting the economy through the crisis and into recovery.

Good morning, traders. Welcome to our regular preview of the market week ahead, with a focus on the economic data and market narrative that are most likely to impact gold prices as well as the US Dollar and other correlated assets.

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome back to our weekly market wrap. Following a round-trip of a trading week—but one that lacked the neck-breaking volatility that wreaked havoc through much of March—gold prices are trading slightly lower than the prior week’s close.

The ISM non-manufacturing survey fell 4.8 points to 52.5 in March, still above contraction territory and beating the expected result of 43.5. The measure of business activity fell 9.8 points to 48, marking the first contraction since 2009 during the tail end of the Great Recession. The contraction is due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic which has shut down large portions of the US economy, resulting in approximately ten million people out of work so far.

US employers cut 701,000 jobs in the first two weeks March vs. just 10,000 expected, pushing the rate of unemployment from 3.5% to 4.4%. This data does not include almost 10 million people who filed for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks of March. The report indicates the beginning of a labor market collapse which is expected to push unemployment to record highs.

The US has seen record layoffs for the second week in a row, with initial jobless claims more than double those of the previous week as well as double all expectations. The week ended March 28 saw more than ten times the number of layoffs than any other week in US history, according to the latest report from the Labor Department. Claims came in at 6.65 million vs. 3.31 million the week before and 3.3 million expected. For comparison, the week before last saw 220,000 layoffs.

Economic activity in manufacturing contracted in March, slipping from 50.1% in February to 49.1% according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. The coronavirus outbreak is likely behind the decline, and manufacturing is expected to slip further in April due to the shutdown of much of the US economy.

Private companies terminated 27,000 positions for the period through March 12, before the worst impact of the coronavirus outbreak was felt, according to the latest data from ADP and Moody’s Analytics. While these positions have likely been ended for the foreseeable future, the actual number of people out of work is much higher. Three million Americans applied for unemployment benefits in a single week earlier this month, the highest figure by far in the history of the country.

Business conditions in Chicago worsened this month according to the latest PMI reading, which came in at 47.8 in March vs. 49 in February. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI has been straddling the 50-point mark of contraction for almost a year, and the latest reading was the ninth consecutive month with a reading under 50. Conditions may have been pushed down further due to the worsening economic climate created by the coronavirus pandemic.

Home prices rose 3.9% in January vs. 3.7% the month before, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The 10-city composite index rose 2.6% vs. 2.3% in December, and the 20-city composite index rose 3.1% in January compared to 2.8% the month before. While home prices may have been heating up at the start of the year, this is likely to see a sharp reversal due to the financial instability surrounding the coronavirus pandemic in the US.