Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets — and may continue to in the future.
So, what kind of week has it been?
Here's what you need to know:
- Gold will snap a three-week streak of weekly gains, set to close near $4,710 after giving up its consolidation near $4,800.
- Tuesday's aggressive pre-market selloff took spot to a weekly nadir of $4,675 on US threats to resume bombing Iran before the original ceasefire deadline; buyers stepped in below $4,700, and the ceasefire was unilaterally extended within 24 hours.
- Gold could only climb back to $4,770 before drifting lower for most of the week, weighed down by a lack of specificity around ceasefire extension terms and a reported collapse of a second round of direct peace talks.
- Friday's announcement that the Justice Department is dropping its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell — combined with an uninspiring Warsh confirmation hearing earlier in the week — lifted 2026 rate-cut odds and sparked a late-week bounce, with the FOMC decision Wednesday and Q1 GDP Thursday now looming as next week's key catalysts.
So, What Kind of a Week Has It Been?
Gold prices will snap a streak of three consecutive week-over-week gains on Friday after a dull week for the precious metal in which prices still demonstrated a consistent level of buying interest but ultimately spent much of the last five trading days under downward pressure. Having given up the opportunity, for now, to consolidate near $4,800, the spot market looks set to close in the neighborhood of $4,725.
Iran Ceasefire Rhetoric Whipsaws the Tape
As we anticipated, due to the sparse amount of important macroeconomic data on tap this week (and with FOMC officials in the traditional silent period ahead of next week's Fed Day), gold price action was dominated this week by reporting and rhetoric centered around the highly tenuous ceasefire in place between the US, its Israeli partners, and Iran, during which negotiations for a more permanent peace go on. Although ultimately — at least as far as the next week or so is concerned — the US administration would unilaterally decree a somewhat indefinite extension of the ceasefire less than 24 hours later, the sharpest turn in the gold market came in the early hours of Tuesday morning, with an aggressive selloff just prior to the start of US cash trading that saw the yellow metal fall from the previous consolidation line of $4,800/oz to the weekly nadir of $4,675.
Traders and managers across most major assets and around the world were unsettled by the US President's heated rhetoric about resuming the bombing of Iran, with the ceasefire's original deadline looming early the next morning. Markets were racked with concern about the geopolitical environment not just holding oil prices (and the costs of all manufacturing and logistics business tied to oil) at the current elevated levels, or pushing them indefinitely higher, if a clear end to the conflict and its impact were to stretch on beyond the end of April. Most impactful for gold, this would also greatly increase the risk of the Federal Reserve being forced to consider raising interest rates this year instead of lowering them.
The most active stretch of the US trading session on Tuesday saw buyers step into gold positions below $4,700, and the US threats to imminently resume a bombing campaign were walked back by the end of the day. But while the shift was an apparent benefit to other major assets — even crude oil prices have remained healthy, given the real lack of clarity around if or when the Strait of Hormuz reopens for shipping — gold spot only climbed back as high as $4,770, a level from which the chart continued to slide lower for the bulk of the week remaining. This appears to be down to the lack of specificity around any new terms to the extension or a potential peace agreement, as well as the concerning reports that, nearly simultaneous to the announcement, a second round of direct peace talks has entirely fallen apart.
Fed Politics Come Back Into Focus
On Friday, monetary policy projections — the primary driver of gold price action for 15 months preceding the instigation of the war in Iran — have briefly taken the driver's seat again and rescued gold from three straight days in the red to end the week. Three days after a less-than-inspiring confirmation hearing appearance from Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, the US Justice Department announced it would be dropping the ongoing investigation into sitting Chair Jerome Powell. The news has been read as implying a better likelihood of the Fed lowering rates at least once in 2026 (Iran War and global oil crises notwithstanding). As a result, gold prices — among other, more risk-on assets — have risen on Friday. In fact, it's only down to this bounce into the weekend that gold will potentially close above $4,700.
Looking Ahead
While the heightened conditions of geopolitical market risk are sure to remain the predominant factor in gold trading next week, more constant macroeconomic inputs come back to the fore as well. The FOMC's next interest rate decision comes on Wednesday, followed the next morning by the first calculation of US GDP growth for Q1 of 2026.
In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I'll see you back here next week for another market recap.
