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Gold Price Preview: September 14 - September 18

Good morning, traders. Welcome to our weekly preview of the trading days ahead, focusing on the economic data, headlines, and market news likely to have the biggest impact on prices for gold and silver, as well as the US Dollar and other key correlated assets.

Following some up-and-down during the overnight session, gold continues to hold gains above the Sunday night opening price and is trading above $1950/oz in the spot markets just before the start of US stock markets. Silver spot prices are making an attempt to break through $27/oz once again. The precious metals are both seeing a relatively sharp rally within the last hour, so there is some possibility of an equally steep correction back towards last week’s close once equity cash markets are opened.

Looking at the calendar for the week ahead, economic data is still fairly light, but we do have Fed Day on Wednesday, which will include an update to the FOMC’s economic projections (as we discuss below.) We’ll continue to look for any signs of life, much less volatility, around Congress’ failing attempts to pass a new round of fiscal stimulus; and we’ll have an eye out for any fireworks in Europe as the UK and the EU are once again deeply at odds over treaty negotiations.

For now, let’s take a closer look at what’s ahead this week.

US Economic Data to Watch

Tuesday, September 15 at 8:30am EDT // Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)

[consensus exp.: 5.95 // prev.: 3.7]

Manufacturing activity gauges for the US have climbed back into positive marks since the depths of the pandemic, but readings are still woefully low and close enough to 0.0 that any miss to the downside at this point poses a real possibility of seeing managers and investors swing into safe havens like the Dollar or gold.

Wednesday, September 16 at 8:30am EDT // Retail Sales (Aug)

[consensus exp.: +1.0% MoM // prev.: +1.2%]

Retail spending growth looks to have settled back to its pre-pandemic levels, holding unimpressible close to 1% month-over-month, or less. I don’t see many reasons to expect any market excitement round this data point for the time being: analysts and observers seem pretty confident that online commerce will help keep things ambling along but without another meaningful round of fiscal stimulus household retail spending will continue to lag.

Wednesday. September 16 at 2pm EDT // FOMC Interest Rate Decision

[no significant changes to monetary policy are expected]

While there’s no realistic expectations for a change to active monetary policy this month, there are two broadly expected changes to the documents: we know that the committee will rework the statement for the first time to incorporate the announced shift in the Fed’s framework for achieving inflation in the US economy; we’re also pretty sure that the updated Staff Economic Projections will include considerably more optimistic growth and employment projections looking forward as the economy—at least according to the data, if not reality on the ground—as recovered somewhat faster than expected.

The positive revisions in the committee’s growth outlook could possibly spur some reach for risk that weighs heavy on gold prices in the afternoon, but I think the reality that rates are staying nailed to the ground and inflation (in theory, at least) will be allowed to move up for quite a while will keep long-term gold holders from rushing out of their positions, even in the face of a rosier forecast.

Thursday, September 17 at 8:30am EDT // Initial Jobless Claims

[consensus exp.: +850k // prev.: +884k]

Last week’s jobless claims number was felt mostly as a disappointment, and so we can expect a little added attention to the data this time around. Analysts are holding onto their calls for an improving labor market though, with some calling for drops closer to 800k to make up for an “anomaly” last week.

Thursday, September 17 at 8:30am EDT // Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)

[consensus exp.: consensus exp.: 15.0 // prev.: 17.2]

The Philly Fed’s activity index has been showing healthier reads over the last few months than their New York cousin, but are still trending downward since the initial post-spring pop. If a farther than expected fall in manufacturing activity is reported at the same time as another disappointing jobless claims number, gold prices could see a knee-jerk rally alongside other risk-off assets.

Global Economic Data to Watch

Thursday, September 17 at 7am EDT // Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

[no significant changes to monetary policy are expected]

For reasons that I confess I’m not entirely familiar with, the BoE is pushing the update to their economic projections to the November meeting. Because of that, the odds of a market moving announcement or commentary from this month’s MPC statement and presser feel low. Although there’s been a resurgence in dramatics and general chaos around UK/EU discussions lately, so we can’t rule out some interesting remarks from the Bank on the outlook for trade.

And that’s how the week ahead lays out for us, traders. As always, I wish you all the best of luck in your markets in next few trading days and I’ll see everyone back here on Friday for our weekly recap.