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The number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance rose to 1.427 million in the week ended June 27, higher than the expected figure of 1 million. Claims have remained above 1 million for 15 weeks in a row. Last week’s figures mark the first time claims have risen beyond expectations since the peak in March.

The US economy added 4.8 million new jobs in June, bringing the rate of unemployment down to 11.1%. Nonfarm payrolls were expected to rise by just 2.9 million rather than the 4.8 million total, a big upside miss. The rate of unemployment also came in better than expected. However, 1.4 million Americans still filed for jobless claims benefits last week, highlighting the fact that the labor market is a long way off any form of recovery.

At last month’s FOMC meeting, the committee agreed to hold rates in their ultra-low positioning while also continuing a rapid pace of asset purchases and other operations in an effort to support the US economy through the current pandemic-driven economic crisis and, hopeful, into a healthy recovery. In the meeting minutes, released this afternoon, we see that the FOMC members felt confident in the decisions made while discussing what next steps are important for building and sustaining economic momentum for a recovery.

The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which measures economic activity in the national manufacturing sector, rose from 43.1 to 52.6 vs. 49.5 expected in June. A reading over 50 indicates positive growth, and June marks the first expansion in the industry since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in April 2020, ending a 131-month string of consecutive growth.

The latest ADP employment report shows that the private sector gained 2,369,000 jobs in June. May figures saw a huge upward revision to 3.06 million jobs added compared 2,760,000 jobs lost as originally reported the month before. Small businesses saw most of the growth in June, with most of the gains in the services sector accounted for most of the growth in June. The US economy is slowly showing signs of recovery from the economic downfall that began in March.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index rose 4.7% annually in April, up 0.1% from the month before. The 10-city composite index saw no change at 3.4% annual growth, while the 20-city composite rose 0.1% annually to 4.0%. S&P Dow Jones Indices managing director Craig Lazzara described prices as “remarkably stable,” noting that the price trends in place before the COVID-19 pandemic struck remain relatively undisturbed.

Good morning traders, and welcome to our regular Monday preview of the trading week ahead, focusing on the economic data, news flow, and market narratives that may have the biggest impact on gold prices, as well as key correlated assets like the US Dollar.

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, focusing on the economic data, news flow, and market narrative that had the biggest impact on gold prices (and may continue to in the future) as well as US stocks, the Dollar, and other key correlated assets.

US consumer spending saw a major increase in May as portions of the economy began to reopen. Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of all US economic activity, jumped 8.2% in May after falling a record 12.6% the month before. This was below expectations of 9.0% growth in consumer spending. Meanwhile, incomes fell 4.2%, and are likely to continue falling as millions of Americans start to lose their unemployment benefits over the coming month.

1.48 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits in the week ended June 20, almost matching the 1.54 million (upwardly revised) claims seen a week earlier. Claims were forecast at 1.32 million, but progress in the labor market recovery has been slower than expected. While claims figures have ticked downward for 12 consecutive weeks, analysts are concerned at the small gap between the last two weeks. In total, 47 million Americans have applied for jobless benefits in the last 14 weeks.

Durable goods orders in the US rose 15.8% to $194.4 billion in May according to the latest report from the US Census Bureau. The sharp 15.8% increase follows a decline of 17.7% in April, when the manufacturing industry was bearing the brunt of the coronavirus lockdown impact. May figures almost erased the heavy losses seen in April, and the May result came in above expectations of 10.6% gain.

The IHS Markit PMI readings released earlier today showed an easing of the economic downturn, with all readings at the highest point seen since the pandemic began in the US. The composite PMI came in at 46.8 in June vs. 37.0 in May. All PMI readings remained in contraction below 50.0, although all of them showed improvement.